Compares what Bitcoin is worth today (market cap) to what holders actually paid on average (realized cap). Pivot at 1: above = collective unrealized profit, below = unrealized loss.
1 = the average holder's breakeven. Below ~1 = collective unrealized loss (cycle bottoms; capitulation extremes often around 0.7-0.85). Around 3 to 4+ = strong unrealized profit, levels reached at past tops (≈4.7 in 2013, ≈4.5 late 2017, ≈3.9 in 2021; tops compress cycle after cycle). Historical markers, not laws. Reacts slowly, biased by lost coins, depends on price history. Cycle context, never a standalone signal.
| < 1 | below realized value: collective unrealized loss, historical bottom zone (extremes ~0.7-0.85) |
| 1 – 3 | intermediate zone (from breakeven to moderate/high unrealized profit), where MVRV spends most of its time |
| > 3 | strong unrealized profit, levels of past cycle tops (≈3.9-4.7) |
Descriptive historical markers, not decision thresholds.
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