infosbitcoin· Bitcoin on-chain analytics, explained

NUPL

The network's unrealized profit (or loss) as a share of its total value. Positive = the market is collectively winning 'on paper'; negative = collectively losing.

How to read it

A thermometer of collective profit. Zones (Glassnode markers calibrated on past cycles, not universal laws): capitulation < 0, hope/fear 0-0.25, optimism 0.25-0.5, belief 0.5-0.75, euphoria > 0.75. It is normalized MVRV ((MVRV−1)/MVRV): capped at +1, no true floor (in practice ~−0.3 at bottoms, ~+0.75 at tops). Reacts slowly, biased by lost coins, thresholds that compress. Context reading, never a standalone trigger.

The math

(Market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap, equivalent to (MVRV − 1) ÷ MVRV.

Reading markers

< 0capitulation: net unrealized loss (2015/2018/2020/2022 bottoms, often around −0.1 to −0.25)
0 – 0.25hope / fear: slight unrealized profit, exiting a bottom
0.25 – 0.5optimism / anxiety: moderate unrealized profit, expansion
0.5 – 0.75belief / denial: high unrealized profit, late cycle
> 0.75euphoria / greed: extreme unrealized profit, top zone (peaks ~0.7-0.75)

Descriptive historical markers, not decision thresholds.

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In the same family

Realized CapThe 'realized' capitalization: instead of valuing each bitcoin at today's price, it is valRealized PriceThe average on-chain cost basis: on average, at what price did each BTC last move. It is nMVRVCompares what Bitcoin is worth today (market cap) to what holders actually paid on average